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World Population Growth: Rate, Humans, Models And Effects
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Published: November 2, 2007
In the 1960s, environmentalists and scientists became extremely worried about trends in world population growth. Their fears were fueled by predictive models indicative of a future population crisis. Their projections pointed to an accelerating rate in the population of humans. If the number of humans on the planet reached 10 billion, the planet's ability to sustain life would be outgrown.
Fortunately, more recent projections indicate that the rate of population growth is decreasing. However, this decrease is not enough of a change for humans to be out of trouble.
At present, the human population is approximately 6.7 billion. There are countless factors that influence what this number will be in the future, however some are more important than others. The two factors most important in the forecasting of population growth are fertility and mortality rates. The rates at which people reproduced and died were the reasons for alarm in the 1960s. A concerted global scientific effort was set in motion in response to the grim assessments of the 1960s scientific community. Some advocated a policy of zero population growth, and others focused their efforts on reducing fertility rates where they were highest: the developing world.
Indeed, the developing nations of the world still maintain the highest fertility rates and population growth. This does not mean the concerned scientists of the 1960s were unsuccessful in their efforts. Fertility rates have fallen a great deal in developing regions, largely due to the their efforts. Meanwhile, fertility rates in the developed world have greatly slowed, and some regions' rates have stopped or even become negative. While progress in slowing population growth has been made, changes in mortality rates are presenting new challenges for population scientists.
The population division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs, or DESA, has calculated future global population models for nearly 60 years. Each DESA report is a revision of the preceding analysis, and their most recent revision is for 2006. Their models are extremely complex, accounting for the projected demographic makeup of every region on the planet. Their 2006 report recognizes the effects of falling fertility rates upon global population growth, but the reported trends in the mortality of humans will complicate life for future societies. If the DESA projections come to fruition, the aged population in developed countries will be more than twice the number of children by 2050. The aging population is less profound in developing countries; however, it is no less of a concern. The effects of such demographic shifts in the midst of population growth pose formidable problems regarding the distribution of resources and immigration worldwide.
Concerns regarding the rate of population growth go beyond the number of humans on the planet. The effects of population growth are heavily dependent upon the rate at which the population consumes the planet's resources. The authors of a 2002 report on the world's population and sustainability selected a quote from Isaac Asimov to stress their concerns. Asimov wrote, "…democracy cannot survive overpopulation… Convenience and decency cannot survive it. As you put more and more people into the world, the value of life not only declines, it disappears…" This foreboding passage is not just a warning about population growth, but also a grim forecast of the future of an aging humanity once resources become scarce.
Sources:
"Basic Information on Population and Sustainability." Ecofuture.org. 21 May 2002. 1 Nov. 2007. http://www.ecofuture.org/pop/info.html.
Hinrichsen, Don & Robey, Bryant. "Population and the Environment: The Global Challenge." Environment. Actionbioscience.org. 2000. 15 Oct. 2007.
http://www.actionbioscience.org/environment/hinr ichsen_robey.html.
Roach, John. "Forecast Sees Halt to Population Growth by End of Century." National Geographic News. 6 Aug. 2001. 1 Nov. 2007. http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2001/08/08 06_population.html.
"World Population Prospects – The 2006 Revision – Highlights." U.N. Department of Economic and Social Affairs – Population Division. 2007. 1 Nov. 2007.
http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/wp p2006/WPP2006_Highlights_rev.pdf.
At present, the human population is approximately 6.7 billion. There are countless factors that influence what this number will be in the future, however some are more important than others. The two factors most important in the forecasting of population growth are fertility and mortality rates. The rates at which people reproduced and died were the reasons for alarm in the 1960s. A concerted global scientific effort was set in motion in response to the grim assessments of the 1960s scientific community. Some advocated a policy of zero population growth, and others focused their efforts on reducing fertility rates where they were highest: the developing world.
Indeed, the developing nations of the world still maintain the highest fertility rates and population growth. This does not mean the concerned scientists of the 1960s were unsuccessful in their efforts. Fertility rates have fallen a great deal in developing regions, largely due to the their efforts. Meanwhile, fertility rates in the developed world have greatly slowed, and some regions' rates have stopped or even become negative. While progress in slowing population growth has been made, changes in mortality rates are presenting new challenges for population scientists.
The population division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs, or DESA, has calculated future global population models for nearly 60 years. Each DESA report is a revision of the preceding analysis, and their most recent revision is for 2006. Their models are extremely complex, accounting for the projected demographic makeup of every region on the planet. Their 2006 report recognizes the effects of falling fertility rates upon global population growth, but the reported trends in the mortality of humans will complicate life for future societies. If the DESA projections come to fruition, the aged population in developed countries will be more than twice the number of children by 2050. The aging population is less profound in developing countries; however, it is no less of a concern. The effects of such demographic shifts in the midst of population growth pose formidable problems regarding the distribution of resources and immigration worldwide.
Concerns regarding the rate of population growth go beyond the number of humans on the planet. The effects of population growth are heavily dependent upon the rate at which the population consumes the planet's resources. The authors of a 2002 report on the world's population and sustainability selected a quote from Isaac Asimov to stress their concerns. Asimov wrote, "…democracy cannot survive overpopulation… Convenience and decency cannot survive it. As you put more and more people into the world, the value of life not only declines, it disappears…" This foreboding passage is not just a warning about population growth, but also a grim forecast of the future of an aging humanity once resources become scarce.
Sources:
"Basic Information on Population and Sustainability." Ecofuture.org. 21 May 2002. 1 Nov. 2007. http://www.ecofuture.org/pop/info.html.
Hinrichsen, Don & Robey, Bryant. "Population and the Environment: The Global Challenge." Environment. Actionbioscience.org. 2000. 15 Oct. 2007.
http://www.actionbioscience.org/environment/hinr ichsen_robey.html.
Roach, John. "Forecast Sees Halt to Population Growth by End of Century." National Geographic News. 6 Aug. 2001. 1 Nov. 2007. http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2001/08/08 06_population.html.
"World Population Prospects – The 2006 Revision – Highlights." U.N. Department of Economic and Social Affairs – Population Division. 2007. 1 Nov. 2007.
http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/wp p2006/WPP2006_Highlights_rev.pdf.
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